Predicting the Next President - download pdf or read online

By Allan J. Lichtman

ISBN-10: 1442269219

ISBN-13: 9781442269217

Do you think Mitt Romney’s “47%” remark brought on him to lose the 2012 presidential election? Or that Richard Nixon misplaced the 1960 presidential election simply because he sweated on television? perhaps John Kerry was once “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? reassess! In Predicting the following President, political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman offers 13 ancient components, or “keys” (four political, seven functionality, and personality), that ensure the result of presidential elections. within the chronological, profitable software of those keys to each election given that 1860, Lichtman dispels a lot of the secret at the back of electoral politics and demanding situations many conventional assumptions. An imperative source for political junkies!

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Candidates could bring the public back into presidential elections by using campaigns to build grassroots support for the policy agenda they would follow if elected president. And incumbent presidents could prepare for upcoming elections by focusing on the stewardship of the country, not the politics of campaigns. The study of history shows that a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House, as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term—economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal, and policy innovation.

But when it comes to picking winners, the pollsters’ record is hit-or-miss even at point-blank range. So sure were they that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in 1948 that they quit polling ten days before Election Day. They never again would stop this early. Still, they dubbed “too close to call” Dwight Eisenhower’s eleven-point victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Ronald Reagan’s ten-point defeat of Jimmy Carter in 1980. Likewise too close to call, even in the final polls, were the elections of 1960, 1968, and 1976.

After Ronald Reagan had been in office only a year, for example, the keys already disclosed his “superior prospects for reelection” in 1984. In the spring of 1988, eight months before the election, the Republican administration had enough keys in place to make George W. Bush a shoo-in for reelection. ”1 The keys correctly anticipated even the closest elections in American history. James A. Garfield faced a deficit of four keys when he beat Winfield Scott Hancock by only two thousand votes in 1880—a margin of victory of less than one-tenth of 1 percent, by far the narrowest in history.

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Predicting the Next President by Allan J. Lichtman


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